08/21/01 Storm Chase in Northern
Iowa
(fantastic supercell potential that never
materialized)
Though this day turned out to be a bust,
I'm throwing this page together since there was a very good potential for
supercells. The morning maps depicted a setup more typical of springtime than
late August: a nice surface warm
front was oriented east-west from Nebraska to western Illinois with
widespread southeasterly winds and Tds ranging from the upper 50s in northern
Iowa to the lower 70s in southern Iowa, a surface low in central Nebraska, 50
knot speed shear with >90 degrees directional shear (helicities
approaching 400 and EHIs of 8!), forecasted
LIs of -10 would yield CAPES near 4500, and a modest
vorticity maximum forecast to overlay the previous features by late
afternoon and evening would help with ascent. The low-level
jet was nearing 30 knots and the nose was directed towards
northern/northeastern Iowa. CINH was not a major factor, so I chose northern IA
as a broad target to chase.
After making a couple data stops at
libraries along the way, things were still looking good. When I had arrived at
HWY 9 and I35 in northern Iowa the situation hadn't improved and sunset was an
hour away. The deep convection ensued at 9:30pm forty miles to my north near
Alber Lea, MN. I'll chalk it up as the nocturnal enhancement of the low-level
jet near sunset that initiated the convection. Though the vort max was in place
aloft, it's also possible that its effects weren't felt below 500mb until late
evening. Either way, no convection became surface-based south of Albert Lea, so
the tornado potential was wasted. At the very least, I forecasted my
target fairly accurately and got to throw over 700 miles on my 127K mileage
car! I did see some high-based storms on the way home Wednesday morning
and afternoon in Iowa, however it was nothing interesting to look
at.
SPC's
Mesoscale Discussion at 6pm for IA/MN