| My hopes this day were not high at all.
In fact, they had been higher
in the days leading up to the event until Sun night's models came in with pathetic
mid and upper flow (20-25 knots at H5) across the Srn High Plains. With such
weak flow, I was betting that any supercells this day would quickly turn into messy HPs and
not be worth the 4 hour drive to Boise City, OK. Nearly all of the hi-res models
suggested convection would turn multicellular over time, so I was surprised when Bruce H. called this
morning inquiring about a chase. He was more interested in the warm front lifting
north into the central Panhandle and sure enough that darned HRRR was
consistently progging a supercell along the front by late day. I've seen the HRRR
advertise similar hopes before only to scrap the idea during real-world CI
(May 21 and May 22 of this year are both classic examples). Since he offered to drive,
I tagged along for the conditional chase. In short, the HRRR once again failed miserably with
convective modes in our area of interest. Garbage storms were all that developed near us
in the deeply-mixed air and they failed to persist as they neared the warm front. So, we were
forced to dash from Four Way up to Stratford and then the OK Panhandle to chase what would be the only
true supercell of the day found crawling SE out of Baca County, CO on the nose of a low-level moisture ridge.
From about 50 miles away, the structure of the Baca County supercell was nothing worth writing
home about. I've chased supercells before in upslope environments that possessed soft
anvils and mediocre updrafts, so we were hesitant to dismiss this storm's potential. While
about 10 miles southeast of Boise City, OK, we could readily discern an occluded, sunlit
lowering on the storm's rear flank that featured laminar-esque scud near the ground. Given
the persistence of these features and a confirmed tornado cited in AMA's TOR warning, we
were confident this was a tornado roughly 25 miles to our NNW! After taking a county
road east of HWY 287 for better viewing, a narrow tornado was in progress at 1930 CDT before expanding into a stovepipe by 1935 CDT.
The contrast could have been far better, although considering our distance
we were fortunate to have even had a sight of this tornado. This tornado didn't enter a classic rope out stage, but
instead dissipated from the ground up while tilting horizontally at 1943 CDT. Storm structure eventually
became more interesting as this supercell drifted ESE closer to us. At 1959 CDT, a more
substantial tornado emerged in the shape of a tilted, truncated cone. This classic tornado then began an elongated rope phase
at 2005 CDT. A new lowered extension and wall cloud then appeared downstream
of the previous tornado underneath a broad updraft base, so we elected to remain SSE of the supercell as it would continue tracking closer to us over
time. Over the course of the next hour, the updraft began constricting and structure dwindled,
though a rotating base persisted well east of Keyes, OK. Robust convection farther downstream eventually stabilized the inflow to this cell and the chase was called off shortly after sunset.
By all rights we should not have witnessed these tornadoes as our initial forecast tanked hard, so this day will always have a sore spot for me...albeit miniscule!
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